Wednesday morning, the Academy of Country Music Association announced the nominees for the 2013 ACM Awards, to be held April 7 at 8 p.m. EST at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Before we get to the nominees and predictions, here’s a run down of the event. This year’s show will be hosted by Luke Byran and Blake Shelton (both nominated for Entertainer of the Year) and will be broadcast live on CBS at 8 p.m. EST. The ACM Awards are fan-voted and the voting will start on March 25 at VoteACM.com.
Eric Church leads the pack with seven nominations, while Hunter Hayes received six and Miranda Lambert and Taylor Swift both pulled in five nominations. The full list of nominees and my early predictions are available below, but let’s make some overarching claims now.
Prediction: Taylor Swift won’t win anything.
Reasoning: While Swift is a two-time winner of both the Female Vocalist of the Year and Entertainer of the Year crowns, she hasn’t been very big on country radio this year – at least not compared to the past. You can’t forget that this is a fan voted award, and country music fans know T-Swift isn’t country. There are too many really good female stars right now (Miranda Lambert, Carrie Underwood) for her to compete. Her Grammy performance last weekend isn’t going to help her cause either.
Prediction: Luke Bryan will win his first major award.
Reasoning: Luke Bryan has only ever lost one fan voted award and his album Tailgates and Tanlines was HUGE this year. It helps that he’s hosting the show and his face will be all over the advertisements. It also helps that’s he’s currently out on a nearly sold-out tour and fans are looking forward to seeing him in his first headlining experience this year, keeping him fresh on voters minds as they hit the polls. He’s had some of the biggest fan support of a country star in recent memory and his cross-over appeal will certainly help with the less-than-diehard voters. Oh, and those hips, let’s not forget those hips.
Here’s the rest of the nominees and predictions:
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Prediction: Miranda Lambert.
Reasoning: Husband Blake Shelton won it last year and just hasn’t had as many hits to follow up for two in a row. While I think Luke Bryan will come close, Lambert has been on top of country music all year and is continuing to pump out big hits as the time for voting rolls around.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Toby Keith
Blake Shelton
Prediction: Luke Bryan.
Reasoning: If this wasn’t a fan voted award, I think Eric Church would probably take the category, but fans love Bryan and his supporters will come out in full swing to vote.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Prediction: Miranda Lambert.
Reasoning: Pretty much for the same reasons as mentioned in the Entertainer of the Year category. Carrie Underwood close second.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Prediction: Thompson Square.
Reasoning: This one is really a toss up. I think country music’s biggest fans right now are too young to vote Big & Rich but a newcomer like Love and Theft, Thompson Square or Florida Georgia Line would be surprising. But then again, Sugarland hasn’t been very big this year.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Prediction: Zac Brown Band.
Reasoning: This will be a very interesting category. The Band Perry has enjoyed big success, but I don’t think they can pull off the win in the same way that “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” and “Say Goodbye” aren’t big enough hits to carry the Eli Young Band to the title. Little Big Town won a Grammy for Pontoon, but that’s their only big song. Zac Brown Band has staying power and has released a slew of hits this year.
New Male Vocalist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Prediction: Brantley Gilbert.
Reasoning; Gilbert is country to his roots and I think we’ll see him get rewarded for that. Hayes has gotten a lot of accolades for being so young with two big hits, but he hasn’t impressed in live performances. Gilbert has some great songs out right now and he’s on the road with Tim McGraw, so that helps.
New Female Vocalist of the Year
Jana Kramer
Kacey Musgraves
Sunny Sweeney
Prediction: Jana Kramer.
Reasoinging: Kacey Musgraves has made waves with “Merry-Go-Round”, but Jana Kramer had a monster hit with “Why You Wanna” and her second single, “Whiskey” has gotten decent radio play. Let’s also not forget she played Alex on One Tree Hill and will gather a lot of votes for that familiarity.
New Vocal Duo or Group of the Year
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Prediction: Thompson Square.
Reasoning: Both Thompson Square and Florida Georgia Line are on tour with Luke Bryan right now and both have a good shot at this award. In the end, I think Thompson Sqaure’s three hit singles (“Are You Going to Kiss Me or Not,” “Glass,” and “If I Didn’t Have You”) to FGL’s one (“Cruise”) is going to be the difference.
New Artist of the Year
Florida Georgia Line
Brantley Gilbert
Jana Kramer
Prediction: This is a category I think we might see FGL take home.
Reasoning: “Cruise” was a huge hit and resonated far beyond the country charts. Gilbert and Kramer are both serious contenders though.
Album of the Year
Blown Away, Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville, produced by Mark Bright)
Chief, Eric Church (EMI-Nashville, prod. by Jay Joyce)
Red, Taylor Swift (Big Machine Records, prod. by Jeff Bhasker, Nathan Chapman, Dann Huff, Jacknife Lee, Max Martin, Shellback, Taylor Swift, Butch Walker, Dan Wilson)
Tailgates & Tanlines, Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville, produced by Mark Bright, Jeff Stevens)
Tornado, Little Big Town (Capitol Nashville, prod. by Jay Joyce)
Prediction: Tailgates & Tanlines, Luke Bryan.
Reasoning: Again, Bryan gets the fans votes consistently and he had four huge singles off this album. It definitely helps that he’s on tour right now. Eric Church will be a close second.
Single Record of the Year
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart,” Eli Young Band
“Over You,” Miranda Lambert
“Pontoon,” Little Big Town
“Springsteen,” Eric Church
“Wanted,” Hunter Hayes
Prediction: “Springsteen” Eric Church.
Reasoning: “Pontoon” was easily the country song of summer this year and “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” is everyone’s favorite song, but “Springsteen” has staying power. When summer is over and you’ve heard the single 8,000 times on the radio, you still don’t touch that dial.
Song of the Year
“A Woman Like You,” Lee Brice
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart,” Eli Young Band
“Over You,” Miranda Lambert
“Springsteen,” Eric Church
“Wanted,” Hunter Hayes
Prediction: It’s easy to give this one to Church for “Springsteen” again, but I think “Over You” by Miranda Lambert is going to take it.
Reasoning: Everyone knows the story behind “Over You” and no one can deny its emotion. After Lambert and Shelton’s acceptance speech at the CMA Awards a few months back, fans will want to see more of the same.
Songwriter of the Year
Rodney Clawson
Dallas Davidson
Josh Kear
Luke Laird
Shane McAnally
Prediction: This is kind of a silly category for a fan voted award, because let’s be real, most fans have never heard of any of these songwriters. I’m giving it to Rodney Clawson for writing “Drunk on You” (the only song on Tailgates and Tanlines Luke Bryan didn’t write), “Did It For the Girl,” Feels Like a Rockstar” and “Get Your Shine On.”
Video of the Year
“Creepin’,” Eric Church
“Merry Go ‘Round,” Kacey Musgraves
“Tornado,” Little Big Town
“Wanted,” Hunter Hayes
“We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together,” Taylor Swift
“The Wind,” Zac Brown Band
Prediction” “The Wind” by Zac Brown Band.
Reasoning: It was so weird, it has to win, right?
Vocal Event of the Year
“Don’t Rush,” Kelly Clarkson Featuring Vince Gill
“Easy,” Rascal Flatts Featuring Natasha Bedingfield
“Feel Like A Rock Star,” Kenny Chesney (Duet With Tim McGraw)
“Let It Rain,” David Nail Featuring Sarah Buxton
“The Only Way I Know,” Jason Aldean With Luke Bryan & Eric Church
Prediction: “Feel Like A Rock Star,” Kenny Chesney (Duet With Tim McGraw)
Reasoning: Two of the biggest names to every play country music come together, produce one hell of a song that they sing every night on tour – I don’t see Chesney and McGraw losing this one. However, I’ll be honest, I’m pulling for buddies Aldean, Bryan and Church because I think that would be one of the most entertaining acceptances ever.
We’ll have more information here as presenters and performers get announced and obviously post-award show recap, where we’ll see how these predictions stood up.
Boots on Boylston 